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Tuesday 27 May 2003

Newsean presents news and analysis you need to know - highlights, summaries and no-nonsense commentaries from and about East and South Asia, and the world from Thailand, free-press capital of the area.

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With the world spotlight on Iraq, the anti-terrorism focus has hit a vicious terrorist gang based in northeast Iraq. The terrorist leader Mullah Krekar denies links to Baghdad. There is strong suspicion he is lying about that, as well as many other things.

An al-Qaeda cell uncovered

The rise of a terrorist in Iraq 

Mullah Krekar is one of the most dangerous men in the Mideast and heads an Iraq-based terrorist group. Here he assures European newsmen he knows nothing of terrorism.

The threats to world peace and the pervasive infection spread by a small number of vicious and equally misguided men are well illustrated by Mullah Krekar. He is the hateful leader of a group called Ansar al-Islam. He is based in Iraq, he is in bed with the Saddam Hussein regime, and he is armed and dangerous.

Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam) is a rough mirror of Jemaah Islamiyah, a group that is far more familiar to those of us here in Southeast Asia. Like JI, like Abu Sayyaf, the group was formed by core members of al-Qaeda. It has become one of the local units of the world-wide terrorist organisation formed by Osama bin Laden and led by his close associates.

The Iraq group appears to harbour few if any world-wide ambitions. The group is focussed on its immediate area, the Kurdish region of northern Iraq on the border with Iran. It has assassinated and bombed Kurdish leaders and towns.

The thing that makes Ansar more fearsome is its shadowy, controversial but real ties with the Iraq government. It gets worse. Because no one is certain just how close the ties are — there are huge international battles over this ” the Ansar al-Islam is even more terrible, more shadowy and more sinister. Many Kurdish communities and many Iraqis are, in fact, terrorised.

The key to Ansar al-Islam is Najmuddin Faraj Ahmad. He is better known as Mullah Krekar and like other allegedly religious men of al-Qaeda has no obvious claim on the title of mullah. He is the front man and political leader of Ansar al-Islam but is not the actual brains behind the operation.

Again, there is close analogy to Southeast Asia, where the front man for Jemaah Islamiyah, Abu Bakar Bashir is not the man who directs the terrorists. The alleged head of Abu Sayyaf was killed several years ago but the actual, far more shadowy leaders have kept it going.

The actual man behind Ansar al-Islam is Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. He is a Jordanian, professional jihadi who fought against the Russians in Afghanistan and stayed around to help bin Laden turn hateful, spiteful, anti-Muslim and anti-world. His ties to Baghdad are shadowy and also widely debated. Colin Powell cited them in his United Nations evidence speech; sceptics say there is no smoking gun.

It is certain Zarqawi was wounded in the liberation of Afghanistan last year. He fled to Iran, but they wouldn't have him and threw him out. That is where Zarqawi got tender, loving care including amputation of his wounded leg. If you think he lay in an Iraqi hospital and didn't get attentive visits from the Iraqi Mukhabarat, you haven't been paying attention to what happens in Iraq these days.

The rest of the story is familiar to Southeast Asia. Zarqawi was bagman, helper, guide and early political officer in setting up Ansar al-Islam in Iraq. The money to found the group came from bin Laden, through Zarqawi. Mullah Krekar became leader of Ansar and Zarqawi once again based himself in Afghanistan. This is the identical manner in which al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden set up Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines.

The link to bin Laden is both ideological and physical. The Saudi fugitive got his fingers into the Ansar al-Islam group early, but the group didn't resist at all.

Mullah Krekar denies any link to terrorism, which is arrant nonsense since his group are undeniably terrorists who have committed terrorist acts against the Kurds, just for starters. He denies any link to the al-Qaeda headquarters of Osama bin Laden, but has met the world's most wanted man and describes him as “the jewel in the crown of Islam.”

These sorts of denials seem to have caught the attention of many people in the west, who see this all in legal terms. They won't fool people in Southeast Asia, of course. These sorts of statements are old hat in the Philippines (Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front) and in Malaysia and Indonesia (Jemaah Islamiyah) and in Thailand (Pulo and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional). These and other terrorist groups are not members of the headquarters of bin Laden, but are field groups set up, inspired and often funded by al-Qaeda.

The definitive life story of Mullah Krekar is by a Kurdish reporter and it is online here at kurdmedia.com. (The link will open a new browser window. Just close it to return here.)

Mullah Krekar is yet another regional leader, head of a group formed by and loyal to al-Qaeda, that must be targetted if the war on terrorism is to succeed.

Mullah Krekar is a terrorist who gives the lie to the idea there are no terrorists in Iraq. What is at issue is not whether Baghdad helps terrorists — but how much. It is not a question of whether the Iraqi regime under Saddam Hussein works with al-Qaeda terrorists, but a question of which ones.

Krekar is a piece of work. Scandanavian countries have a history of offering asylum to some of the very worst and violent people on the strange basis that their countries are trying to arrest them for political crimes. Sweden was once the home base of Pulo, the terrorists of the so-called Pattani United Liberation Organisation of southern Thailand. And in this grand tradition, Norway offered asylum to Mullah Krekar.

Now Oslo has belatedly discovered who they are harbouring. The country is torn between booting him out or keeping him around to face criminal charges and help authorities with their enquiries — undergo interrogation, in plain English. Krekar recently headed out to Holland to ask for asylum there, but not even the Dutch had the stomach for him, and they shelter the Communist Party of the Philippines, who have killed thousands of their own followers, not to mention innocent bystanders, troops, police, etc.

So the Norwegians have filed sort of a holding charge: kidnapping nine people in northern Iraq. Mullah Krekar is quite proud of the criminal act, and freely admits his group abducted the nine Kurds. But he claims innocence because he was the one who freed them later.

In addition, Jordan has asked Norway to extradite Krekar, to try him on charges of drug trafficking. Of course Mullah Krekar denies that charge, but can't explain why Jordan would ask for his extradition otherwise.

IN RECENT ISSUES

. . . more . . .

Thaksin gives a 30 April deadline

A realistic quote to drum up support

A series of steps to get the anti-trafficking campaign back on track

Thailand has revitalised a sagging, flagging battle against drugs with a series of new initiatives. Can they really make this new initiative work?

Good Question.

Some of the steps announced and under way seem unlikely. Just for example, The army chief is going to Burma again, to try to interest Rangoon in some joint steps against the Rangoon allies of the United Wa State Army.

These folks are the world's biggest drug cartel. It is possible to take action against them and put them out of business in the medium run.

Problem: They are also former rebels who made a deal with the Rangoon dictatorship a dozen years ago. If the generals leave them alone to do drugs, they won't attack the Burmese. And more: If the generals don't take action against them, the UWSA will, ahem, invest in Burma with some of their splendid profits.

So Thai commanding General Somdhat Attanant puts proposals for joint anti-drug action on the table in Rangoon, there is no way the military junta can meet him halfway, if at all. The idea of joint military action along the border is out of the question, for example, because Rangoon can't attack the UWSA at all, by mutual agreement.

Then there is the attention-grabbing order by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Jan 14. He told police: Clean drugs off the Thai streets by April 30 or face the consequences.
Mr Thaksin is a businessman and an executive-type leader, who expects results from employees (i.e. civil servants), which punishment along the corporate ladder for those who don't achieve. Never mind for a moment that the Thai government isn't a company, Mr Thaksin can be exceptionally nasty and punitive for those who don't live up to his expectations

So.

• Expect a lot of action against drug trafficking for a bit.
• Expect some drug traffickers to die unpleasant deaths to the extent that some human rights groups will complain
• Expect high-profile arrests of street peddlers and low-profile pressure on police informants and the lowest level of drug salesmen.
• Expect night club raids to actually increase from the current, intrusive level.
• Expect the drug traffickers to flourish as always.

(See next column up there.)

Some new emphasis

There are steps under way, and not only in Thailand, that will help defeat drug traffickers, money launderers, and corruption spawned by the huge drugs export industry based in Burma and operating in Thailand and the region.

The same day Mr Thaksin ordered three months of intensive anti-drug sweeps, the Association of Southeast Nations put the heat on China and recalcitrant members to do the right thing.
The 11 countries met in Chiang Mai. The dog-and-pony show part of the meeting spoon fed the always passive gaggle of reporters news they had decided to make the region drug-free by 2015.

But seriously, folks.

They looked at the world's most successful crop substitution projects in the north of Thailand. These are models of perfection, and adaptable to other areas where opium is grown (can you say Burma and Afghanistan?).

So there will be a new emphasis on naming or shaming Burma depending on whether the worthy generals of that country cooperate in moving their farmers away from opium and into far more profitable crops.

The stated target of the new Thaksin crackdown

Thailand itself is getting a new man at the top of the anti-drugs agency. He is former deputy police chief Chidchai Wannasathit, a three-star general with an extensive background and a clean reputation.

He takes over the prime minister's Office of the Narcotics Control Board.

The bad news is that, at least officially, the splendidly connected politician Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is at the very top of the political part of the anti-drugs operation. That could be disastrous if he takes an active role, or only slightly annoying if he keeps his nose out of operations.

The Bad News

Much of this sounds good but hang on.

The Anti-Money Laundering Office is likely to be further gutted and neutered, although it has launched excellent and fruitful examinations of big-time drug dealers. This is a political matter outside the anti-drugs fight but likely to affect it.

Officials will be scrambling to make their quotas under Mr Thaksin's order to clean up their areas by April 30. Big fish will swim leisurely out of the net as the cops struggle to make their numbers look good with arrests too petty for words.

The government continues to reject calls all the way to the very top of the country to name and shame suspected Mr Bigs of drug dealing. Yes, there are libel laws but the reason for that is that some of those names are very close to the prime minister.

Don't forget the daily news on the Newsean Updates page. You can bookmark and return to this page often. It is updated regularly, often daily, with news of Thailand and, especially, its decisions on the war on terrorism.

  And coming soon: Thailand headlines for WAP. Stand by.

Same old policy is now unacceptable

Bangkok Post front page of December 2 reflected the general outrage?

New war, new tactics

The war on terrorism is bringing out all kinds of new ideas. In one way, this is good. In another, it horrifies the traditionalists, still locked into their thinking box.

Fact is the war on terrorism is a new type of warfare and those who refuse to consider past mistakes are bound to repeat them.

The world is semi-terrorised by a determined and new type of enemy which employs new tactics and strategy in the old fight for influence and power.

New ideas and actions are necessary against this enemy. That doesn't mean that every new idea is worthy but it does imply we all need a certain tolerance when reasonably responsible people voice suddenly new thinking.

Prime Minister John Howard of Australia did just that on December 1.

He voiced his new thought that Australia is capable of identifying threats to the country from neighbourning nations. Australia would love to be able to pursue such obvious threats inside those neighbours. The UN charter should recognise such a right.

You could hear the outrage immediately. Indonesia was first, Thailand was second and by Sunday night there was something of an uproar over Mr Howard's idea. The headline in the Bangkok Post (above) summed up the old thinkers nicely.

No flies on the Bangkok Post, by the way. The front page story was objective, factual and exactly reported the thinking of the inside-the-box people in some countries.

(See next column up there.)

Refreshing new thoughts

The thinking of “outraged Asia” was far from unanimous.

It's understandable that the slow-moving, well-schooled, highly linear thinkers in bureaucracies think, as they say these days, inside the box.

How lovely, however, to see just how many others think outside it.

Some appeared able to recognise Mr Howard's speech as a plea for UN action, not a threat of Australian invasion.

Others sloughed it off.

Philippines Inquirer front page of December 2 thought differently

In the Philippines, an actual target of terrorism and severe tourist warnings, the eyes are firmly fixed towards the future.

The alleged “threat” by Australia isn't even a diversion there. It hardly rates a mention. It's far more important to discuss and consider a anti-terrorist treaty between Manila and Canberra.

This agreement, still at the talking stage, could indeed see Australian troops in the Philippines. But they wouldn't be invaders or a threat. They would be welcome visitors on joint operations against terrorists, training camps and potential threats. Filipino soldiers would operate in Australia, presumably to train.

Well-known independent commentator Lim Say Boon of Singapore couldn't be much bothered slamming the Australians either.

His Straits Times column the morning after Mr Howard's speech dripped criticism of the racist Thaksin Shinawatra comment that Asian summits are for “yellow-skinned and black-haired” people. He pointed out ageing Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is still fighting battles with long-gone Australian politicians like Paul Keating who called him “recalcitrant” and thus put all of Australia in Dr Mahathir's elephantine vengeance list.

Mr Lim, who is a director of OCBC Investment Research in Singapore, said it's about time Asean dropped its wornout racial stereotypes, which wrongly put Australia in the colonialist class. It's 2002, people, that's his argument.

You don't have to accept the Philippines Inquirer. You don't have to accept Mr Lim. But you have to accept that if you think we will defeat terrorism the way we defeated, say, the Nazis or communism, you have another think coming.

Don't forget the daily news on the Newsean Updates page. You can bookmark and return to this page often. It is updated regularly, often daily, with news of Thailand and, especially, its decisions on the war on terrorism.

  And coming soon: Thailand headlines for WAP. Stand by.

Terrorists have never spared Thailand

Did Hambali (above) plan the Bali bombing at a meeting in Thailand?

Attacks and planning

The possibility that terrorist leaders planned the Bali bombing in a safe house in Thailand has caused controversy in Bangkok. Thai leaders say such a meeting was unlikely or impossible, fearing an image problem for the tourist-dependent country.

This underestimates the intelligence of tourists but also demands amnesia. Terrorists have attacked Thailand and abused the country's hospitality for 30 years to meet to plan attacks.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra brought down the wrath of his parliamentary dictatorship and began another round of press intimidation after the Asian Wall Street Journal printed a front-page story of the alleged Bali planning.

The Journal story was neither the first nor the most specific about the allegation that Jemaah Islamiyah mastermind Hambali called a planning meeting in southern Thailand to design and assign the details of the murderous October 12 attack in Bali.

The Financial Times of Britain printed the first report of the Hambali meeting a full week before the November 7 Journal piece. The Associated Press news agency printed far more details than the AWSJ on the same day as the US-owned newspaper.

To many, the story is a detail in the vast detective work of figuring out what happened, in Bali, who did it, and how. To Mr Thaksin, it was a direct slur on Thailand, an example of just how low the foreign press has gone — and he actually said such stories are invented.

All of this, along with a threat once again to pull the visa of a foreign journalist in Bangkok, appeared aimed at intimidation. And the Thai premier was also frustrated when foreign governments made it clear that no complaints or threats would stop them from advising their citizens of the dangers in foreign travel these days, including in Thailand.

Of course, it is still unknown exactly what led up to Bali. Detectives and intelligence agencies from a dozen countries are putting the story together. In time, knowledgable people will be able to tell Mr Thaksin whether Hambali came to Thailand to meet the bombers, as many now think.

In the meantime, a blind man can see that Thailand is as vulnerable as any other country.

Background of terror

In October 1972, international terrorists struck for the first time at Thailand. They struck on the very day of the investiture of the Crown Prince HRH Maha Vajiralongkorn. Black September terrorists seized the Israeli Embassy and took the entire staff hostage.

Thai officials negotiated an end to that drama without casualties. But it was the beginning of a string of terrorist attacks and abuse that make it clear that in these days of the war on terrorism, there is no safe haven.

Thailand has long been known for its hospitality and for its openness to foreign tourists. Tourism is the country's biggest foreign currency earner — even though Thailand is one of the world's half dozen biggest food sellers and exporters.)

Some intelligence agencies including the Thai Special Branch police (santi ban) believe terrorist groups have formally or informally declared Thailand a safe meeting place. This remains open to speculation but two major terrorist attacks were planned in Bangkok. There have also been international terrorists attacks — although the good news is that none has caused major damage. Yet.

Tourists will continue to figure out for themselves if Phuket is safe

• April 1988

Don't forget the daily news on the Newsean Updates page. You can bookmark and return to this page often. It is updated regularly, often daily, with news of Thailand and, especially, its decisions on the war on terrorism.

  And coming soon: Thailand headlines for WAP. Stand by.

A web of violence hides within Asean

Abu Bakar Bashir, widely believed to be the godfather of Jemaah Islamiyah

Jemaah Islamiyah forced out of the shadows

So what is this Jemaah Islamiyah that Indonesia, Singapore and others have asked the United Nations to outlaw?

The Jemaah Islamiyah, commonly called JI, is the overall network assigned to terrorise Southeast Asia. It operates pretty much like al-Qaeda, although there is some angels-on-a-pinhead debate over whether JI is subordinate to al-Qaeda or a close ally of the Osama bin Laden organisation.

JI is organised to operate across the region. The JI first of all is a network of old Muslim extremist groups and new recruits. Some have traditionally wanted independent homelands (like the Pulo group of southern Thailand or smaller Moro gangs in the Philippines) while others want a pan-Islamic homeland across lower Asean, from Zamboanga through Indonesia, Malaya, southern Thailand and western Burma, finally linking geographically to Bangladesh.

Video shows a training camp in Indonesia which motivates recruits and teaches them how to kill

For now, JI uses a number of tactics, all stressing violence and murder and all designed to terrorise the region to gain the upper hand. Up to now, despite violence and thousands of murders, JI has failed to terrorise. But bombings in Zamboanga, and especially Bali, have gripped the attention of Asean, Australia and the world.

JI is well organised, and has grown secretively into a formidable enemy of decent people, in the same way — and using the same general tactics — as al-Qaeda.

The military leader Hambali (right column) has recently organised the region into four main military regions, which he calls mantiqi

1. Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand
2. Indonesia
3. The Philippines, Sulawesi of Indonesia and all of Borneo including Brunei, East Malaysia and Kalimantan province of Indonesia
4. Australia and West Papua

This year, the meeting has twin goals. Members want to help their economy and fight terror. Here is what they will try to do:

• Build up security against real threats, and on the six fronts mentioned above, while they
• Continue to make it as easy as possible for businessmen, tourists and regular people to move across borders and within the 21 members countries.

There is no time for delay. JI is the most dangerous threat to Asean security, growth and civilisation. Nations in the region must unite to combat JI or they will suffer terrible consequences.

JI tactics and leaders

Abu Bakar Bashir is under arrest as this is written, in Indonesia. So far as is known, he is to JI as Osama bin Laden is to al-Qaeda. He is the motivator, facilitator, public spokesman and father figure to the misled young people the JI groups attract.

To extremely casual observers, Bashir is a kindly old cleric and he often has appeared to the press this way. He runs a religious school up-country with classes in hatred of infidels, the glory of combat and the excuses for murderous violence.

(Note that Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim country, has really big Islamic groups. The biggest has 40 million members, the next biggest has 30 million. Both of these groups called for Bashir's arrest as a terrorist. And by contrast, the Bashir school has a few hundred students.)

People familiar with former communist tactics would recognise Bashir as the head of the fronts. They seek to give a presentable face to the organisation, while the real work proceeds underground, led by those with real power.

JI terror mastermind Riduan Isamuddin, aka Hambali

In JI, that would be the Pakistani Riduan Isamuddin, also known as Hambali. He holds the titles of deputy leader and and operations chief in Jemaah Islamiyah. It is certain he has planned and directed murderous operations in Indonesia and the Philippines.

Hambali is free as this is written, although he is wanted on criminal charges in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. He is a longtime al-Qaeda member. He is a member of the consultative council (syura) of both Al-Qaeda and JI.

Not all of the JI are so lucky. Agus Dwikarna of Indonesia went to the Philippines early this year to get together with friends and allies to plot a bombing campaign. As he was getting on a plane to go to Bangkok for the next chapter, Manila security authorities picked him up, and he is currently enjoying a long stay at a Philippines home for the criminally inclined.

Agus carried out bombings in Manila malls that killed 22 people doing holiday shopping in December, 2000. He bombed the Philippines embassy in Jakarta and almost killed the ambassador a little earlier. Apart from Bashir, who is feigning illness and trying to avoid helping authorities with their enquiries in Jakarta, Agus is the highest ranking JI operative out of the picture.

Like al-Qaeda in general, however, JI has a strong and active organisation spread across the region. It is almost certain they will attack again, kill again before Southeast is safe again. Everyone can help by remaining alert. These days, if you see people carefully studying an embassy, a government building or a mall, they could be setting up an attack.

The Straits Times of Singapore had an interesting story on a little-mentioned JI operative. Agus Dwikarna is in jail in the Philippines, and the article is here and should open in a new browser window for you.

Some background of how Singapore busted three JI operations rings is at this site. It details some of the ways terrorists are trained to avoid detection, and claims Singapore had some luck in preventing major destruction.

Don't forget the daily news on the Newsean Updates page. You can bookmark and return to this page often. It is updated regularly, often daily, with news of Thailand and, especially, its decisions on the war on terrorism.

  And coming soon: Thailand headlines for WAP. Stand by.

Former Newsean articles

Who needs enemies with Burma around?

Good riddance to a bad regime

IN RECENT ISSUES

Quotable

Those people who say they want to make jihad against the United States or Israel, what they did is pointless. Jihad is not like this.

Abdullah al-Blehed, whose son was killed in the Saudi Arabia bombings

Quotable

The terrorist threat to Americans in the Philippines remains high.

US State Department security advisory March 2003

Older items below

Quotable

I want to beg all the angels in the sky not to give us as much rain as yesterday.

Bangkok city clerk Nathanon Thavisin, a day after a downpour flooded the city